State officials said last year that if they find emerald ash borers in Wisconsin, they'll cut every ash tree in a half-mile radius of the bug's ground zero.
This year, they're saying maybe they will, but maybe they won't.
It depends.
What it depends on is how big the infestation is, said Mick Skwarok, plant pest and disease specialist with the Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection.
This wasn't a change of policy, Skwarok maintains. Rather, officials didn't do a good job of explaining the policy.
Skwarok said the policy of cutting every ash tree in a 1-mile circle still stands-if the infestation is small enough.
Emerald ash borers leave D-shaped holes in trees.
Wisconsin Department of Entomology
"We feel pretty confident that if an infestation is young and small, our chances to stomp it out are much better than if it's been there for years and covered a pretty large area," Skwarok said last week.
But the ash-killing beetle is notoriously hard to find, and it might already have spread over a large area without anyone detecting it. The state simply couldn't afford tree removal in a widespread infestation, Skwarok said.
The state's actions after an infested ash is found will be crucial. One of the first steps is to conduct a "delimiting survey" to find out how many surrounding trees also are bugged.
"The trick is in adequately delimiting, and that's where other states have had problems," said Melody Walker, a colleague of Skwarok's.
Walker was referring to the fact that numerous eradication zones in other states have failed to stem the spread.
Wisconsin is aware of new research and would welcome new borer-eradication methods once they're approved, Skwarok said. Chemical and biological control agents are being tested.
Wisconsin also is interested in new research in Michigan, where the Asian beetle has killed millions of ash trees, that is looking at selective cutting of infested trees as a way of removing the borers and their food sources, Skwarok said.
Will Wisconsin try that method? Skwarok said that depends on whether federal authorities authorize it.
But just south of the Wisconsin state line, it's already official policy.
Emerald ash borers have been found in several areas of northeastern Illinois, as close as 40 miles south of the Wisconsin border.
On March 8, the Illinois Department of Agriculture announced it would not cut every ash tree near an infestation, concluding: "it is neither feasible nor practical at this time."
Illinois still aims to eradicate the borers.
"However, our tree surveys indicate not only that there isn't enough money available to remove both infested and non-infested trees, but also that some trees are inaccessible because they're located either in densely wooded areas or on steep slopes," according to the Illinois announcement. "Our hope is a population-reduction strategy will contain the beetle until researchers discover a way to get rid of it once and for all."
Illinois also maintains a quarantine of affected areas. Transporting firewood and other tree products from affected areas is prohibited.
Wisconsin can only hope Illinoisans observe the quarantine or that Wisconsin's efforts to catch violators succeed.
Unless, of course, the bugs are already here, having hitched rides in infested firewood or nursery stock in years before knowledge of the borers was widely known.